Okay so Emilia Pérez, huh?
This is my blog and therefore a safe space to admit… I did not hate Emilia Pérez. She’s fine. The correct number of Oscars for her to win is zero. But I understand why she left such an impact on voters. That said, her star has faded over February. Twitter will do that to ya.
Even if it hadn’t, I get the sense Emilia Pérez’s apparent numerical dominance is an illusory “like but not love” effect spread over many categories. Films with double digit nominations often do disappoint on the night. See which categories I’m more and less optimistic on below.
The Big Ones
Best Picture
When the nominations were announced, I was just happy Anora was there. Critics speculated at release that this could finally be Sean Baker’s Best Picture run. I never fully bought into that. We’ve all deluded ourselves into thinking our indie darling could make it all the way, but seemingly as a rule buzz that starts that early cannot last.
Since then, Anora has won almost everything worth winning. Producers Guild. Directors Guild. Writers Guild. A boatload of critics awards. In the last month the sex worker fairy tale has gone from “could-be contender” to “unquestionable leader.” Its main competition is, somewhat surprisingly considering where the race was a month ago, Conclave. We’ll see if the papal thriller’s surge of (ill-timed) momentum arrived in time.
Should Win: Anora or The Brutalist
In a Perfect World: Nickel Boys
Chaos Pick: The Substance
I Hope Donald Trump Dies from Diarrhea on Live TV: I’m Still Here
Please No: Emilia Pérez
Will Win: Anora
Best Director
I understand why Jacques Audiard is here, appreciate Coralie Fargeat’s inclusion, and continue to be perplexed by James Mangold’s. Those reactions are immaterial. None of them feel relevant to this race. While The Brutalist is certainly a jaw-dropping achievement of filmmaking, Sean Baker has been saying all the right things in his acceptance speeches this season and holds the “It’s About Time” advantage. The big question is, if Anora is Best Picture after all, will this category continue its recent trend of diverging?
Should Win: Sean Baker (Anora)
Will Win: Sean Baker (Anora)
Best Original Screenplay
Watch this one on the night for a hint as to what name is in the Best Picture envelope, given how often the categories correlate. If Anora wins for its screenplay, it’s almost definitely taking home the final trophy. If not, that doesn’t necessarily mean it isn’t, but the forecast gets muddier.
Should Win: Anora
Will Win: Anora
Best Adapted Screenplay
Poor Nickel Boys, a phenomenally produced and important movie that got smothered out of the conversation from the jump. Screenplay may be its only hope for a win, if it can somehow overcome the crowd-pleasing Dad-movie power of Conclave.
I would like to take this moment to clarify that the movie Conclave is very very good and I really enjoyed it.
Should Win: Nickel Boys
Will Win: Conclave
Acting
Best Actor
Timmy Chalamet is the only real challenge to Brody, if only because Oscar voters loooove when actors portray real people and especially musicians. On the other hand, he’s young enough that voters can feel comfortable they’ll have another chance to vote for him. Luckily. Brody 100% earned his second statue.
Should Win: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
Will Win: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
Best Actress
This category always seems to be a tight race in recent years, doesn’t it? Anora potentially cementing its position for Best Picture could cause a downstream boost for Mikey Madison. I’m not ready to say that possibility overrules the months-old conventional wisdom that it’s Demi’s to lose.
Should Win: Demi Moore (The Substance)
Will Win: Demi Moore (The Substance)
Best Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin is phenomenal in A Real Pain, a movie in which he plays THE LEAD. Ugh. Category fraud aside, none of the other nominees have proven themselves a solid alternative. Lock this one in.
Should Win: Yura Borisov (Anora)
Will Win: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Best Supporting Actress
Even the Emilia Pérez haters will agree that Zoe Saldaña is innocent of that movie’s crimes. If it’s going to win any above-the-line trophy, this feels most likely.
Should Win: Ariana Grande (Wicked)
Will Win: Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
Genre
Best Animated Feature
With the possible exception of Memoir of a Snail I’d be happy with any of these winning. If I had a vote I guess I’d go Inside Out 2? Disney and Pixar win too many of these, but that genuinely is the one I liked best of these five. I predict the Academy to be stronger than me… and pick the one from the other major studio. I support that decision.
Should Win: Inside Out 2, but really any of them
Will Win: The Wild Robot
Best International Feature
It’s either going to be the one that has 12 other nominations or an omen of just how brutally Twitter tanked that film’s chances. Hey, how weird is it that Flow is nominated?
Should Win: I’m Still Here
Will Win: Emilia Pérez
Best Documentary + The Shorts
For the first time in many, many years I’m 0/20 on viewing these categories. Even my beloved animated shorts were just too hard to access in time. I have no choice but to abstain from predictions.
Crafts
Best Original Score
Should Win: Challengers. Will Wi- What’s that? Challengers isn’t nominated? I’m sorry, you must be mistaken. Please double check.
Should Win: The Brutalist
Will Win: The Brutalist
Best Original Song
It has to be one of the Emilia Pérez songs, right? Assuming they don’t consume each other in voting. If they do… could this actually be Diane Warren’s year? (“The Journey,” The Six Triple Eight) She has 0 wins from 16 nominations and counting. Will a trophy finally free her from her cursed nomination feedback loop?
Should Win: Abolish this category
Will Win: El Mal (Emilia Pérez)
Best Sound
“The music one” feels like a cheap prediction. I’d love to be proven wrong.
Should Win: Dune: Part Two
Will Win: A Complete Unknown
Best Production Design
It’s tempting to tap Dune: Part Two, considering Part One won in this category a couple years ago. Or maybe that’s an argument against awarding the sequel for doing a lot of the same thing. Regardless, Wicked‘s more fantastic (and tactile) sets probably appeal more to the craftspeople.
Should Win: The Brutalist
Will Win: Wicked
Best Cinematography
The Brutalist should be taught in both photography and architecture classes, as I hope Kogonada’s Columbus already is. Cynically, I think a voter pool so thoroughly won over by Emilia Pérez see its hyperactive musical energy especially present in its cinematography.
Should Win: The Brutalist
Will Win: Emilia Pérez
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
My “should” pick is really a plea for the Academy to spread the love more. There’s been an annoying trend lately of Best Picture nominees crowding every category down the ballot. It’s hard to argue against The Substance winning, though. That movie is its makeup.
Should Win: A Different Man
Will Win: The Substance
Best Costume Design
Some old Hollywood throwback, mixed with some modern updates for a fantasy setting, plus a dash of $700 million at the box office and largely positive reviews equals a safe prediction. But not a certain one. A Complete Unknown or even Nosferatu could nab this award.
Should Win: Wicked
Will Win: Wicked
Best Film Editing
Personally I’m more impressed by the solid consistent editing work that makes the nearly four-hour-long The Brutalist feel breezy. But the Academy easily goes for the flashier editing like what stitched Emilia Pérez together. Even if they don’t, I think they’re more likely to reward Conclave‘s quiet competence.
Should Win: The Brutalist
Will Win: Emilia Pérez
Best Visual Effects
This tends to be the one category where genre franchises get represented yet rarely win. Yes, Dune is also a franchise film, but it’s a franchise film nominated in four other categories including Best Picture. Better Man wasn’t enough of a hit to challenge it, and Wicked‘s visual effects were enough of a punchline that its win would be one too.
Should Win: Dune: Part Two
Will Win: Dune: Part Two
This Sunday the Oscars, for the first time ever, will stream online via Hulu, and, for the first time ever, will be hosted by famous podcaster Conan O’Brien. It’s a strange feeling, suddenly expecting quality from the telecast.
