This is very last-minute, but I’m watching the clock count down to the start of the ceremony and feel compelled to just throw this out there.
I haven’t been keeping up very closely with the races because I’ve been too focused on other things the last couple of months. These predictions are fun to make, though. I enjoyed a bunch of these movies enough to want to announce I’m rooting for them and maybe manifest something into existence.
For the sake of completeness, I’ll pick a “will” for each category, even if it means picking basically at random (as I will for Live Action Short and Documentary Short). Gonna abstain from some “shoulds” where I haven’t seen enough of the nominees to feel I’m making a fair pick.
Best Picture
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Everything Everywhere, or The Banshees of Inisherin, or Tár, or The Fabelmans. I’d be happy with any of those.
Best Director
Will Win: Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans. Again, Todd Field and Daniels are also good picks.
Best Actor
Will Win: Austin Butler, Elvis
Should Win: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Actress
Will Win: Cate Blanchett, Tár
Should Win: Cate Blanchett, Tár. But who isn’t also rooting for a Michelle Yeoh upset?
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Should Win: Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: The Banshees of Inisherin, but it’s an honor to lose to Everything Everywhere here
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Women Talking
Should Win: (abstain)
Best Animated Feature
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Should Win: Pinocchio or Turning Red
Best International Feature
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: RRR, it’s not nominated but I won’t let that stop me
Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: Navalny
Should Win: (abstain, but everyone tells me it should be All the Beauty and the Bloodshed and I trust them)
Best Documentary Short
Will Win: The Elephant Whisperers
Should Win: (abstain)
Best Live Action Short
Will Win: Le pupille
Should Win: (abstain)
Best Animated Short
Will Win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse, and I’m gonna be mad
Should Win: Ice Merchants
Best Original Score
Will Win: Babylon
Should Win: Babylon
Best Original Song
Will Win: “Naatu Naatu,” RRR
Should Win: “Naatu Naatu,” RRR
Best Sound
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Best Production Design
Will Win: Elvis
Should Win: Babylon
Best Cinematography
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: ??? Tár I guess?
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Will Win: Elvis, as tempted as I am to say The Whale
Should Win: Elvis
Best Costume Design
Will Win: Elvis
Should Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Editing
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: … you know what?Top Gun: Maverick. Seriously! That is a hard edit in a lot of subtle ways and it’s done so well you never notice. Everything Everywhere has pacing problems. Don’t @ me.
Best Visual Effects
Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water, twice