Another year, another rule change. For the first time since 2011, rather than letting some behind-the-scenes math determine the number of Best Picture nominees, there are a flat ten films in the running. The change paid off immediately. It’s always better to recognize more great movies, and almost all of these nominees deserve to be here.
This was fun last year, so I’m doing it again: I’ve organized the films in contention according to how correct the Academy would be to award them the top prize. Here is the 94th slate of Best Picture nominees roughly in order from most to least correct. As always, I have also provided their streaming locations in case you want some guidance on what to cram.
A – Correct!
The Power of the Dog
Streaming on Netflix
I’m getting Brokeback Mountain vibes from this race and not because of the obvious reasons. The question isn’t “Is The Power of the Dog the best nominee this year?” It is. The question isn’t “Does it deserve to win more than all these other nominees?” It does. The Power of the Dog is unanimously, unambiguously, the one movie that most should win.
The question is “Will the Academy get it right?” And that’s the answer we don’t have. For the other nominees’ sakes, I hope none of them become Crash.
Drive My Car
Streaming on HBO Max
Alright, so there is one other film that would be a worthy winner, but that’s because it would come from so far out of left field that I’d be too excited to be mad. I have no idea what it would mean for the Academy to select the 3-hour Japanese film mostly composed of characters telling other characters stories. They like long, slow-paced movies? They like Murakami in particular? If you have a theory, my ears are open. This wouldn’t be a Parasite. It would be something else entirely. And it would be glorious.
B – Sure, can’t complain.
Dune
Streaming on HBO Max
ABC’s desperate desire to shoehorn blockbusters into the Oscars broadcast makes even less sense considering there’s a blockbuster right here! Look! Dune was a huge success, and it got nominated because it’s also a technical marvel. The multiplex would be a more interesting place if there were more Dunes. And I say this as someone who was mixed on the film as a whole.
What would a Dune win mean? It could be a direct rejection of Netflix—a way of the voters expressing how valuable the theatrical experience is. Or it could be an Argo-style make up win for a perceived Best Director snub for Denis Villeneuve, but that feels less likely considering how locked down the Best Director race is for Campion. I’ve also seen comparisons to The Return of the King in terms of being a great, perhaps definitive, adaptation. If that’s the case then the greenlighting of part two would temper my expectations for this year.
West Side Story
Streaming on Disney+ and HBO Max
From the creators of “Steven Spielberg should win Best Director” comes “West Side Story should win Best Picture.” Yes, we know Spielberg’s a great director. Of course the camerawork is virtuosic. Obviously every single frame is a delight to behold. It had to be nominated.
But winning? Well, it’s an adaptation of a story that already won Best Picture once… and there are so many other good nominees… All the pieces of a Best Picture winner are there, but it’s hard to see it actually make that leap.
Nightmare Alley
Streaming on Hulu
It’s actually pretty rare for a director’s follow-up to their Best Picture winner to also get nominated, so it’s comforting to know mainstream Hollywood’s admiration of Guillermo del Toro is deeper than just The Shape of Water. Despite what I’m going to say about another film later in this list, this would be the most “conventional” pick. And by “conventional” I mean it would be the expected winner by the standards of 2018. It just… feels like a movie that would win Best Picture.
C – …Huh!
CODA
Streaming on Apple TV+
This charming small-scale independent film about a hearing teenager at odds with her Deaf family was perfectly at home at Sundance, but now it’s a small fish in a big pond. It’s not bad that a film of this scope to get so much praise. I love to see it! I just can’t shake the feeling that CODA would be one of the most forgettable Best Picture winners.
On the other hand, how hilarious would it be for Apple to get a Best Picture Oscar before Netflix? That’s the silver lining here.
Licorice Pizza
Available for rent
I’m definitely in the minority with my opinion on Licorice Pizza (it’s… ehh) so it’s been hard for me to sympathize with its support. It seems destined for maybe a Best Original Screenplay win and nothing more. And the parts I do like, i.e. Alana Haim, couldn’t find their way into the nominations. So my somewhat cynical interpretation of a Licorice Pizza win would be that it’s a make-up win for letting Paul Thomas Anderson go so long without a statue. However I feel about this film, I don’t want to be the one making the counter-argument.
D – Really? That?
King Richard
Available for rent
From the “it understood the assignment” category of biopics, and a reminder that it’s closed-minded to dismiss those out of hand, tempting as it may be. This is not a Bohemian Rhapsody type of biopic nomination, but it’s not exactly shoulders above that either. I respect King Richard without totally understanding why it’s here.
If it wins? That means… no, I can’t even come up with a hypothetical. It won’t win. Sorry.
Belfast
Available for rent
Let’s pay our respects to this year’s victim of what I’m calling A Star Is Born Syndrome. Belfast was the first film of this awards season to be deemed a frontrunner for Best Picture. There’s no recovering from that.
Traditional measures would peg this as the strongest candidate: the TIFF audience award, an it’s-his-time filmmaker, artsy-fartsy use of color, a story of childhood set against the background of violence… Luckily for us, the Academy’s recent efforts towards inclusivity have diluted those traditional metrics. A Belfast win would mean this Oscar season has been stretched so far out that the calendar overflowed and went back to September.
F – Incorrect.
Don’t Look Up
Well… at least it’s better than Vice.
Honestly, this year I’ve been finding it pretty hard to engage with the Oscars as much as I usually do. Part of that is the boneheaded decisions they’ve made about the ceremony. Another part is the Olympic-year schedule. The newest part is the increasing dread that they’re not going to get the (hopefully) final prize right.
I’ve learned to accept that, though. Really, the fact that they’ve gotten it right twice in a row right now is unusual. So let’s bask in the chaos. People always say it’s boring when it’s predictable. Well, it’s not predictable anymore.