The nominees for this year’s Academy Awards will be announced tomorrow morning. Rather than try to predict the actual lists of nominees for each category, I thought I’d try something I’ve seen from other blogs and make some assorted predictions along with my sense of their likelihood. So I did that, and then realized that in this particular year it probably would have been easier to just predict the actual nominations. Oops!
So here are miscellaneous items I’ll be watching out for to see how the storylines develop. I think of it as 50%+ being things I’m actually predicting will happen and <50% being things I think are unlikely to happen but would be interested to see. If my instincts are correct, about 5 or 6 of these should come true Tuesday morning. That’s math. I took a statistics class once.
Here we go!
[100%] Top Gun Maverick gets a Best Picture nomination
This doesn’t feel like much of a prediction anymore, but I want the record to show I was talking about this possibility last summer during its behemoth box office run. Paramount’s decision to delay the Top Gun legacyquel until it could make a splash in theaters paid off big time, and that decision combined with the sheer entertainment value will be worth a nod from the Academy.
[90%] Turning Red is Disney’s only title in Best Animated Feature
Turning Red has shown up consistently this awards season over Pixar’s other offering, Lightyear, and the Disney Animation flop Strange World. As someone who is maybe more positive on Lightyear than most (It is some of the most technically impressive animation I’ve ever seen), I’m not willing it call it dead in the water just yet, especially given this category’s reputation for just nominating whatever the voters’ kids liked. It faces a strong headwind in the form of Wendell & Wild.
[80%] No female nominees for Best Director
Sarah Polley has the best shot with Women Talking, a film that despite being consistently in the awards conversation has never found a way to make itself the main topic. If not her, Gina Prince-Bythewood’s chances have also improved in the last couple months. The fact that names like Joseph Kosinsk and Park Chan-wook are being floated as contenders, though, does not inspire confidence.
[70%] The Banshees of Inisherin leads in nominations
I still think the amount of love the industry voters have for Banshees is going underreported, and I’m expecting it to have a hefty haul up and down the list. A month ago my pick for the alternative would have been The Fabelmans or maybe Everything Everywhere All At Once, but recently it seems likelier that All Quiet on the Western Front could sneak in at the top in addition to several technical categories.
[60%] A screenplay nomination for Triangle of Sadness and nothing else
As often happens to Cannes sensations, Triangle of Sadness‘s ambitions have dimmed from potential Best Picture contender to “just happy to be here.” It was still enough of an industry hit to get something, but acting is unlikely and it’s not a showy enough movie to pop up in the crafts.
[50%] Two Supporting Actress nominations for Everything Everywhere
Stephanie Hsu’s brilliant performance deserved far more recognition in the first half of this award season than it got. Instead, the supporting actress attention for Everything Everywhere has gone mostly to Jamie Lee Curtis. One of the advantages of a season-long campaign is that kind of injustice can be spotted and corrected. Curtis already has that momentum, too, so if Hsu is nominated, I don’t think it will come at the expense of her castmate.
[40%] RRR gets more than one nomination
“Naatu Naatu” is lock not just for a nomination but potentially to win Best Original Song, hot off the heels of wins at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. Could it do more? RRR is such an extravagant crossover hit that I could see it popping up in at least one other category as well. Best Picture is a definite possibility, but I’ll also be watching for it in Directing. The directors branch has been gratifyingly international the last few years, so it has a chance if it can fend off a surge from Edward Berger and All Quiet on the Western Front.
[30%] An Elvis-related surprise
I don’t have a specific expectation here, I just know that Elvis has impressed the industry folks way more than the critics and general audience. We saw how much of a hit Bohemian Rhapsody was with the voters, for whatever reason, and Elvis exists in the same field but with actual cinematic artistry backing it up. Maybe Baz Luhrmann gets a shock Best Director nomination? Maybe it somehow appears in Screenplay? Maybe it sweeps nearly every craft category? I can’t shake the feeling that no matter how much I adjust my expectations it’s going to surpass them anyway.
[20%] EO, Decision to Leave, and Return to Seoul are all snubbed for Best International Feature
Best International Feature née Foreign Language Film has an odd nomination process that leads to some of the best foreign films not even making the shortlist, but on top of that the final five nominees tend to have a real head-scratcher. I’ve learned to expect the best of the shortlist to be inexplicably excluded. For some reason I have a particularly bad feeling about this year, though the recent above-the-line buzz for Decision to Leave assuages my concerns somewhat.
[10%] Tom Cruise gets a Best Actor nomination
The 5th spot in Best Actor effectively coming down to a superstar reprising a role from 35 years ago and a feature debut from the year’s most heartwrenching indie highlights just how strange this year’s campaign season has been. It would be a real achievement for Maverick‘s success to trickle up to its lead. Certainly his work since Mission: Impossible‘s soft reboot in 2011 has rejuvenated his reputation, but I’m not sure there’s enough goodwill for a “It’s His Time” arc. Paul Mescal in Aftersun is the more compelling narrative.
[0%] After Yang
With Everything Everywhere siphoning A24’s entire campaign budget and Colin Farrell in pole position to win Best Actor for The Banshees of Inisherin, expect After Yang to go the way of The Farewell. Oh well, that’s okay. It makes the movie that little bit sweeter.